Rookies: Steep Learning Curve or Can Anyone Do This?

Originally Posted on October 25, 2006 on Foxsports.com

Nascar is attracting a lot of drivers.  Juan Pablo Montoya ditched Formula One to drive for Chip Ganassi.  AJ Allmendinger left his Champ Car ride to drive for the New Red Bull Nascar team as a teammate for Brian Vickers.  Ricky Carmichael retired from his formidable motorcycle racing career to join MB2.  Sam Hornish, this year's IRL Champ and Indy 500 winner, plans to drive a few Busch races for his IRL car owner, and Nascar team owner, Roger Penske.  But is all the defection to Nascar a good thing? Can these rookies immediately win at the Cup level?  Do they need to?

Each year, Nascar crowns a Rookie of the Year.  Until Tony Stewart started the trend in 1999, rookies were not expected to win multiple races in their rookie year.  The best an owner could hope for was a few top tens, and a cross of the fingers dream that the pocket book wouldn't suffer too much until the rookie learned to protect the equipment. 

Since Stewart, Dale Earnhardt Jr, Matt Kenseth, Ryan Newman, Jimmie Johnson, and Denny Hamlin have all won in their rookie year.  Hamlin is still in contention to win the Cup in his rookie year.  

Next year's rookie crop looks impressive - Juan Pablo Montoya, AJ Allmendinger, and David Ragen are all slated to run a full schedule.  Paul Menard will likely attempt the same for DEI.  But are they all ready to run a full Nextel Cup schedule?

Juan Pablo Montoya:  Montoya has been running his ABC's lately:  He has two ARCA starts, a planned Busch start at Memphis this weekend, and if all goes well a Cup date in Homestead.  He also has been relentlessly testing at several tracks in a variety of stock cars.  His start at Talladega was specifically to get Montoya permission from Nascar to race the Daytona 500, as he did not have restrictor plate experience.

AJ Allmendenger:  Allmendenger was impressive in his truck series debut.  It is unclear what steps, other than attempting to make the Atlanta race, Allmendenger will take to prepare for next year's Cup series.  Allmendenger does not have the benefit of Montoya's guaranteed starting position - he will have to qualify for the first few races on speed. It is unclear (at least to this writer) how or if Allmendenger will get clearance for Daytona.

Paul Menard:  Menard has driven in the Busch series for 2 years.  He has also qualified for select Cup races.  He will also have to qualify on speed for the first few races.  He has raced at several restrictor plate races, so racing Daytona will not be a problem if he qualifies.

David Ragan:  Ragen ran his second Nascar Nextel Cup race at Martinsville.  It was his second horrendous finish, and he caused several incidents at Martinsville which drew the ire of other drivers.  Ragan was entered in the Atlanta race, but Nascar did not approve him for the 1.5 mile track.  His limited restrictor plate experience could spell trouble for Roush in February.

Meanwhile, a Championship is being decided at the races these rookies are using to learn how to drive a stock car.  Should next year's rookies race in Chase races?  Ragan caused a lot of problems last week.  This week, Allmendenger will attempt to race a Cup car at the wicked quick Atlanta track - is he ready to handle that?  Should the other drivers be worried?  Should the Chase drivers, who already have unbelievable pressure, be concerned about drivers who are learning to drive stock cars or who are driving over their heads?  Is Nascar's stance on Ragan an indication that they will not tolerate inexperienced drivers to learn at the expense of the rest of the field?

I think that Chase races should be off limits to those rookies who have minimal experience in Cup races.  Although races prior to the Chase are important, with the slight point differences between drivers, the Chase races should be limited to experienced drivers.  Or at least drivers who have experience at the specific track.  I understand that owners have financial investments at stake, but most driving decisions are made early in the year (remember Kurt Busch, Jamie McMurray, Elliott Sadler, Jeremy Mayfield?).  If owners knew ahead of time that their rookies couldn't "test" out the ride in the Chase races, they could make the appropriate arrangements early in the season. 

But enough with the clueless rookies who are a menace to the rest of the field - we're racing for a Championship here.