Originally Posted September 2, 2007 on Foxsports blogs.
Kyle Busch spilled the beans on the Gibbs Defection to Toyota. In fact, this is one of the worst kept secrets in the Cup Garage since Busch left Hendrick and Junior moved in. My take on the move? Well, that's complicated.
Pro: Be Toyota's #1 Team. Gibbs leaves Chevy, where, frankly JGR will always be playing second fiddle to Hendrick. Hendrick has a long history with Chevy and has the chamionships and trophies to boot. Toyota's standard bearer is... MIchael Waltrip Racing? Red Bull? Bill Davis? It's hard to pick one because none of them have set the world on fire. BDR has finishes in the top ten, as does Red Bull, when they're able to qualify. Gibbs should quickly become the Toyota flagship in Cup.
Con: Leave GM. Gibbs started Cup racing with Pontiac, and won two championships with them (B. Labonte and Stewart). They are consistantly a threat to win on any track, and the teams perform on the cutting edge with new ideas and teamwork. Mark Cronquist, Gibb's engine builder, is clearly on par with Hendrick's program. Stewart has been one of the faces of Chevy due to his Championship in 2005, and this year his USAC teams have Chevy engines. What will this mean, if anything to those business deals?
Pro: Toyota's deep pockets. Toyota demonstrated in the truck series their desire and ability to spend the bucks to get the results. This is Jack Roush's biggest fear. Gibbs should be getting an infusion of cash and that means more people, and more technology with the hopes of more wins down the road.
Con: Lose Chevy support during Chase. How eager will Chevy be to help out the Gibbs teams? The other Chevy teams won't be keen on providing information to Gibbs as that info will leap into Toyota's pockets at the end of the season. This is what I'd worry about if I were Tony Stewart and Denny Hamlin going into the Chase.
Pro: COT transition. The new templates with the COT mean that all car bodies are equal. Teams have little room to fudge the template, and Nascar has shown its willingness to punish offenders. Gibbs teams have worked with the Chevy COT, and the Toyota COT isn't that much different.
Con: Lose the new Chevy Engine Program. Chevy debuted the new engine this year, and clearly it is the class of the field. Chevy's new engine has been hard to beat. My question is whether Cronquist stays or goes due to the Toyota switch. His engines fuel the Gibbs' brigade charges; without him, I'd worry about engine power. Add in RCR and DEI's new program, and Chevy has the other manufacturer's scrambling to catch up. Toyota's engine has improved over the course of the year, but the Toyota teams are having difficulties qualifying.
Pro: JGR has changed before, with little impact. Gibbs transitioned from Pontiac to Chevy with minimal overall impact. There will certainly be struggles as the teams transition, but with the skilled people Gibbs has in place, it shouldn't be horrible. Stewart weathered the prior change.
Con: Fan backlash. Some Nascar fans boycotted the Toyota foray into Cup racing. It remains to be seen how many JGR fans leave the fold due to the manufacturer change. This will hit the pocketbook in lost sales for merchandise, which may actually hurt the drivers more than JGR.
In the long run, the Toyota move will benefit Gibbs. But in the short term, it may cost Stewart and Hamlin a shot at the Championship this year.
And that's probably why Gibbs wanted to keep this secret until the end of the season.
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