Championship Predictions Based on Rookie of the Year?

Originally posted at Foxsports.com on January 2, 2006.

The pattern of Nextel Cup Champions  and Rookie of the Year winners over the past few years:  3 years into their career, many drivers peak and become series champions. 

For example, in 1999, Tony Stewart was the Rookie of the Year (ROTY).  He won the (then) Winston Cup Championship in 2002. A year after Stewart was ROTY, Matt Kenseth was ROTY, and turned around an won the championship in 2003.  Both of those championships were won under the "old" series point system.  Kurt Busch upheld the tradition by being a rookie, but not ROTY in 2001, and winning the championship in 2004 under the "new" Chase format. (Jeff Gordon won his fourth championship in 2001).

This isn't entirely a new trend.  Dale Earnhardt and Jeff Gordon initially set the bar high by winning their championships in less than 3 years.  Earnhardt won his first championship the year following his ROTY season. Gordon was ROTY in 1993 and won his first championship in 1995.

In 2002, Ryan Newman claimed the ROTY trophy over Jimmie Johnson.  Both were in contention for the championship this year but were foiled by Stewart.

What does that mean for the rookie class of 2003 and the Championship in 2006?  In 2003, Greg Biffle and Jamie McMurray battled for ROTY honors.  McMurray won ROTY honors that year, but Biffle was on a hot streak in 2005.   Biffle is a clear favorite by most commentators as a contender for the 2006 Championship.   Many believe that McMurray, now in Jack Roush's cars, could also be a contender for the Cup.

With the Chase to the Nextel Cup now instituted, in theory any of the top ten drivers could win the championship.  All Biffle and McMurray need to do to continue the pattern is make the Chase and stay consistent.