Who's the Best Bet for Rookie of the Year? Does Team Matter?

Originally Posted on January 31, 2006 on Foxsports.com.

This year's Nextel Cup Rookie class is packed with talent - and looks like an invasion from the Busch Series.  Martin Truex, Jr. was the Busch Series champion for the past two years.   Clint Bowyer finshed second to Truex last year, while Reed Sorenson finshed fourth and Denny Hamlin finshed fifth.  J.J. Yeley finshed eleventh and David Stremme finished thirteenth.

All of these drivers drove at least one Cup race last year - with mixed results.  At times, each one appeared to be on the verge of becoming the next big thing.  Truex was often the highest finishing  Dale Earnhardt Incorporated (DEI) car.  Hamlin captured a pole - and eclipsed Yeley's work with the same team.  Stremme, Sorenson and Bowyer had fewer opportunites to run in Cup last year, but handled things well.

The odds on favorites for Rookie of the Year (ROTY) seem to be Truex and Bowyer.   Given Hamlin's strong showing at the end of last year, he is some "experts" pick.

I find it curious that no one wants to discuss the "supporting" cast - owners and crews who will be helping these rookies find their way through the season.

Two teams are fielding two candidates for ROTY - Ganassi (Stremme & Sorenson) and Joe Gibbs Racing (Hamlin and Yeley).  Both teams have lead a successful ROTY campaign.  Ganassi's former driver, Jamie McMurray, won ROTY honors in 2003, although he didn't win a race.  Joe Gibbs Racing (JGR) driver Tony Stewart won ROTY in 1999, winning three races.  Will the internal politics of winning ROTY handicap these teams?  Or will they be able to work together to finish races well.  Ganassi's teams were signifcantly overhauled for this year - both McMurray and Sterling Marlin left the team, thereby opening spots for Stremme and Sorenson.  Similarly, JGR added Hamlin and Yeley after Jason Leffler and Bobby Labonte moved on.

Truex drives for DEI, who's last ROTY candidate, Dale Earnhardt Jr, finished second to Matt Kenseth despite winning two races to Kenseth's one.  DEI has shuffled its driver line-up, with Michael Waltrip gone.  And at Richard Childress Racing, Clint Bowyer took Dave Blaney's spot. 

Of the teams competing for ROTY, Richard Childress Racing is the only one with multiple winners in the past 10 years -Kevin Harvick in 2001 and Mike Skinner in 1996.

Winning the ROTY honors requires more than wins - in fact, winning races does not guarantee winning ROTY.  Rather, finishing consistently  well is more important.  Rookies can afford to have a bad race - but they can't afford to have multiple bad finishes while other rookies are finishing consistently well. 

In a nutshell, the drivers don't do it alone.  The team that can prepare their driver for the pressure, schedule and general craziness of Cup racing while at the same time preparing a car that same driver can drive, will win ROTY honors.  And who will do that, right now, is anyone's guess.